KinectKid333

GTASC XIII Period 11 K-Rankings

Welcome back to GTASC K-Rankings, an exercise in data collection and data prediction.

As a reminder, these rankings are not necessarily meant to predict final positions in GTASC. Instead, they are meant to predict the likelihood of surviving one more week. Although, for the gamers ranked at the bottom of the leaderboard, those are essentially the same thing.

Period 10 K-Ranking Predictions scored 12 correct out of 22 predictions! And, of the 10 gamers which my model ranked the lowest likelihood to survive, 8 of them were actually eliminated.

I am quite satisfied with how my model is performing!

And, with a Period 10 performance of 12 out of 22 correct predictions and an overall accuracy of 45 out of 104 correct predictions, we can now reject the null hypothesis and conclude that my model is better at predicting eliminations than just random chance (p = 0.018). That is admittedly not a very high bar to pass, but I have officially passed it, and that is pretty satisfying :)

Congratulations to everyone still alive! Less than 2% of Individuals who started in this contest are still alive, today. I will say on a personal note, this week will probably be my last week alive. If I don't get eliminated this week, then I'll definitely go out next week. I will hopefully succeed in my personal goal of beating my previous best ranking (41st place, GTASC 2019), as I have the opportunity to secure that this week. I knew that would be a tough goal, as I play better in the endurance format compared to the sprint format. I don't want to jinx it, but I think I'm going to beat that goal, just barely.

Here are the Period 11 predictions! I think this will be my last week running predictions, as the prediction model begins to break down as the semi-finals and finals approach. I'll be back for GTASC XIV, though!