2020-05-25 GTASC Power Rankings
Here we are, the final Power Ranking for the 2019-2020 GTASC season.
Before I get going, I want to give a big congratulations to all competitors. GTASC is a unique pro-am event and so much of the fun and the drama is watching people compete on such an unexpected level. It has been fun for me to watch and to document, and I'm hopeful that this documentation has added to the fun for others.
This power ranking is based only on public information and does not take into account preloads, or any personal biases. There are no fudge factors, even when I know a team is doing better than the data shows. The data I have are imperfect and I do this by hand, so transcription errors can and likely have occurred which could alter the standings, perhaps significantly. Power rankings are not a value judgement. I love you all equally. This is not investment advice and is for entertainment purposes only. Even if it's only my own entertainment.
Seriously, we're about as far as this method can go. This week it's all about the preloads. Essentially anyone left could be the champion, if they have the right preloads. My algorithm has a clear favorite, but that's only because it knows how many bonuses he has relative to how many everyone else has. It doesn't
know about preloads, and that's what really matters here. But the data has been fairly accurate so far, so here we go.
It's all well and good to make predictions--not that I am, exactly. But without accountability, it's just no fun. How do my power rankings from last week look in the light of a new period? Remember when I put out a tentative Individual Power Ranking and the guy I had in first place got eliminated the next week? Yeah... let's not have that happen again.Team Eliminations from last week's PR
With more than half the field being eliminated here, the red ink was always going to run into the top half. I think it's fair to say that Taiyaki JP
probably underperformed expectations a bit and that left the door open a bit. But in the end, we had many very strong teams competing for just a few slots.Individual Eliminations from last week's PR
The solo field took a smaller percentage hit than the team, but the bloodbath was in some ways even more intense. That said, I'm very pleased with the results of my algorithm "prediction." I pegged two survivors for elimination, and two that got eliminated I thought might survive, but all four were in the middle zone, plus or minus 3/4 the line. The ones that I had the highest degree of confidence in either survived fairly handily or were clearly on the elimination side. Given the stakes at play this might be the best result for my algorithm yet.
I think my algorithm is looking very good here too. Props to Warriors of Rock V
for making it through semis while down a man. But that can't possible extend to a win. Last week was their victory lap. And Flamin' Hot Chievos Remastered
sees flamed out. The other three are in a potential three way race to see who wins, with my general gut feeling about who is winning and who can pull off an upset in the algorithm's order.IndividualInferno118
is my algorithm's clear favorite, as I mentioned, by virtue of having gotten through the semi-finals with all his bonuses. But, again, as I said, this week is all about the preloads. If Inferno can match his bonus lead with preload leads then this year is his for the taking. If not, watch out, anyone can get it.
That said, since I'm not in the market of making predictions, I don't think Mental Knight 5
will be the one to surprise. He had a very strong semi-finals, reaching the top position for much of the week, but something causes me to suspect that he's about out of gas. It's no small feat even making finals, so this is no shade being thrown. But I agree with my algorithm that he's the longest shot to win here.
Finally, I gave props to ElroyOMJ
last week for performing very well recently in the algorithm, so one more round for him for getting the highest ratio out of all the finalists going into the finals. That's very impressive, particularly for a gamer known so much more for cranking through the easy games.
Once again, thank you for joining me on the GTASC journey. I'll continue to blog, but I'm hoping to go back to some more stats blogs soon.