Xpovos' Blog - Jan to Mar 20 (129 followers)
Blog

Mar
02
2020-03-02 GTASC Power RankingsPermalink
  • Disclaimer

This power ranking is based only on public information and does not take into account preloads, or any personal biases. There are no fudge factors, even when I know a team is doing better than the data shows. The data I have are imperfect and I do this by hand, so transcription errors can and likely have occurred which could alter the standings, perhaps significantly. Power rankings are not a value judgement. I love you all equally. This is not investment advice and is for entertainment purposes only. Even if it's only my own entertainment.

  • Accountability

It's all well and good to make predictions--not that I am, exactly. But without accountability, it's just no fun. How do my power rankings from last week look in the light of a new period? Remember when I put out a tentative Individual Power Ranking and the guy I had in first place got eliminated the next week? Yeah... let's not have that happen again.

Team Eliminations from last week's PR
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A good week for my projections as both eliminations come from the bottom quarter of the rankings.

Individual Eliminations from last week's PR
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CheshireMulisha didn't use quite enough bonuses to overcome his negative TAD for the week. It was close, and he left some on the shelf that could've done it. He'd have tanked in the rankings as a result, I'm sure, but instead, he's eliminated from what appears to be a high position.

Special props to darkwing1232, also eliminated from the top half of the charts for lack of bonusing, but in an effort to make sure his team got the other bonus. The glass is half full, but the bonuses lost are enough to fill several glasses.

The rest of the eliminations fit the expected patterns.

  • New Rankings

Team
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Big movers: Chevron seven locked, Wormhole engaged. moving up and LillyTruscott moving down, though from opposite ends of the chart, so the movement, while extreme, perhaps is not quite as meaningful.


Individual
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Solo big movers were l306l PoRkRoAsT, who after claiming the top spot decided not to hold on to it, and UselessFATDOG and Oriole2682 who have each sufffered some recently.

Taking up the slack was a strong performance from Secular Forever
Posted by Xpovos on 02 March 20 at 17:42 | Last edited on 02 March 20 at 23:48 | There are 4 comments on this blog post - Please log in to comment on this blog.
Feb
17
2020-02-17 GTASC Power RankingPermalink
  • Disclaimer

This power ranking is based only on public information and does not take into account preloads, or any personal biases. There are no fudge factors, even when I know a team is doing better than the data shows. The data I have are imperfect and I do this by hand, so transcription errors can and likely have occurred which could alter the standings, perhaps significantly. A power ranking is not a value judgement. I love you all equally. This is not investment advice and is for entertainment purposes only.

  • Accountability

It's all well and good to make predictions--not that I am, exactly. But without accountability, it's just no fun. How do my power rankings from last week look in the light of a new period? Remember when I put out a tentative Individual Power Ranking and the guy I had in first place got eliminated the next week? Yeah... let's not have that happen again.

Team Eliminations from last week's PR
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One DQ from near the top also made the competition a bit less intense this week. Two more eliminated from near the bottom of the rankings. Team TheAaronLad continues to survive while being at the bottom. Much like was predicted by JimbotUK a few weeks back.

Bonus accountability (heh), of the 7 teams who won the very top-heavy bonus this week, three were outside of my top-7, and only two were outside of the top-10. Congratulations to Way Too Old For This and The Cake is a Lie 3.0 for stepping it up and going beyond for this bonus.

Individual Eliminations from last week's PR
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Ahayzo goes out as the top-scoring eliminated and the highest on the board, taking his 16 bonuses with him, unused to the graveyard of GTASC. smittykid outlasts Bsmittel and for the most part the rest of the list is within tolerances.

  • New Rankings

Team
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A feature requested was to try to note the biggest movers, up and down each week. Because so much is baked in each week, there often aren't a lot of big movers. This week exemplifies that. No major shakeups. The biggest mover was Stop, Unlock & Pop It picking up a few spots, while LillyTruscott and Kung Pao Chicken each lost a little. Even a DQ didn't shake things up much, as mostly is just meant most teams moved up one spot--since the DQ'd team was near the top of the leaderboard. Ideally this means my algorithm is robust and handling adversity well. Practically we see that even though my projections are not bad, they're still fairly random. This is better than pulling a name from a hat, but not enough to go to Vegas with.

Individual
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Our biggest movers were LORDOFDOOKIE69 and Ethstraad on the downswing and darkwing1232 and Icefiretn on the uptrend.

  • Update

The past two week's worth of data had some extra errors that made it through my proofing and were caught by readers. I've corrected those and reposted from the original data as appropriate. As I note in the disclaimer, this is done by hand, so the errors aren't unexpected, but they are frustrating. Thank you for helping me to keep the data clean.
Posted by Xpovos on 17 February 20 at 18:12 | Last edited on 18 February 20 at 16:29 | There are 5 comments on this blog post - Please log in to comment on this blog.
Feb
16
2020-02-10 GTASC Power RankingsPermalink
  • Update

I'm back from my holiday, and it was lovely. Now to get back to my own scoring so that I don't get eliminated. But I won't forget my power rankings. All of the data has been updated and is presented below. Since this is late, I have to note that this is based on the data AS OF THE 10th of February. Anything done after the period ended is not included.

  • Disclaimer

This power ranking is based only on public information and does not take into account preloads, or any personal biases. There are no fudge factors, even when I know a team is doing better than the data shows. The data I have are imperfect and I do this by hand, so transcription errors can and likely have occurred which could alter the standings, perhaps significantly. A power ranking is not a value judgement. I love you all equally. This is not investment advice and is for entertainment purposes only.

  • Accountability

It's all well and good to make predictions--not that I am, exactly. But without accountability, it's just no fun. How do my power rankings from last week look in the light of a new period? Remember when I put out a tentative Individual Power Ranking and the guy I had in first place got eliminated the next week? Yeah... let's not have that happen again.

Team Eliminations from last week's PR
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Three more from the bottom third, though per usual, not quite the bottom of the list.

Individual Eliminations from last week's PR
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The individual list is a bit more scattered, as might be expected with more eliminations happening. Still they were all from the bottom 50% of the PR list. Xterm1n8or and thatNoseyParker were the most surprising, while down at the bottom, trustfulwalnut, Whtthfgg and I continue to hold on by a thread of determination.


  • New Rankings

Team
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Good Luck to those teams trying to get the bonus this week. That top-7 jockeying is going to be rough.

Individual
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See you all again in just a few days!
Posted by Xpovos on 16 February 20 at 00:08 | Last edited on 17 February 20 at 17:27 | There are 3 comments on this blog post - Please log in to comment on this blog.
Feb
03
2020-02-03 GTASC Power RankingsPermalink
  • Disclaimer

This power ranking is based only on public information and does not take into account preloads, or any personal biases. There are no fudge factors, even when I know a team is doing better than the data shows. The data I have are imperfect and I do this by hand, so transcription errors can and likely have occurred which could alter the standings, perhaps significantly. A power ranking is not a value judgement. I love you all equally. This is not investment advice and is for entertainment purposes only.

  • Accountability

It's all well and good to make predictions--not that I am, exactly. But without accountability, it's just no fun. How do my power rankings from last week look in the light of a new period? Remember when I put out a tentative Individual Power Ranking and the guy I had in first place got eliminated the next week? Yeah... let's not have that happen again.

Team Eliminations from last week's PR
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Note, I erroneously told people that these numbers were better than they were prior to doing all the work that goes into them. I apologize for the errors if anyone was following up. They came from a combination of lack of sleep (I gotta stay up to score and keep myself alive too!) and mis-remembering which teams got eliminated. In my no-sleep-befuddled state I thought that certain teams that had been below that line at certain points were the ones that stayed below the line when the period rolled over. Remember folks, don't do stats off the top of your head on no sleep.

Individual Eliminations from last week's PR
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  • New Rankings

Team
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Individual
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  • Addendum


Power Rankings for next week, if we avoid a doubled period, will be delayed, due to my being out of the country and not having access to the internet for a few days into the next period.
Posted by Xpovos on 03 February 20 at 18:45 | There are 4 comments on this blog post - Please log in to comment on this blog.
Jan
29
2020-01-27 GTASC Power Rank (inlcuding individuals!)Permalink
First, accountability. It's no good to just throw rankings out without checking in on how they performed. Obviously, this past period (two weeks) was an abberation, so I can certainly excuse any failure to perform on all of that, but I don't really feel a need to.

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A massive congratulations to the 40 teams which have survived the "Great Ratio Go-Uppity" the RGU is going to be another GTASC legend, and surviving took most everything out of several teams and individuals, and was just more than some could manage. I also wanted to give props to the 7 teams that did get eliminated, as most of them struggled to put on an impressive show attempting survival along the way. Though the end result wasn't enough, I don't think anyone can be disappointed with the quality of gaming happening.

The RGU had knock-on effects, in addition to skewing the scores for this double period on it's own, the double period and the RGU pressures forced out a lot of bonus usage. I counted 89 bonuses being used! Sure that's a double period so it's only like 45 being used in a single period, but considering that the previous period had only 38 used, among more teams and with more bonuses available, it's clear that teams were giving it their all to stay alive at least one more week.

We'll eliminate 3 more at the end of this week, barring more chaos. Will they continue to be from the bottom end of the list? And how much has the list been shaken up by this change in fortunes, beyond just the eliminations?

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Now to something even bigger. Let's move on to the individual side. With the contest under a hundred, I decided to do the full list, the way I've done with teams. Unfortunately, even though it's under a hundred, it's still a massive project, so that took me a while. My apologies on the delay. I hope it is worth it.

The individual contest in particular showed the vicissitudes of the RGU event. On the team side, a player with an unfortunate pull of RGU for any of a number of reasons could be pulled up by teammates with stronger pulls. On the individual side, it was sink or swim, in an already intensely competitive tournament.

So, enough prelude, how did things shake out?

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Posted by Xpovos on 29 January 20 at 16:43 | There are 5 comments on this blog post - Please log in to comment on this blog.