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Blazing Noble

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Xbox 360 will be no more by Nov 2016 - Here is whyPermalink
I have a friend who has a lot of industry contacts. Apparently word is that next year Xbox Live will be shutting down and games will stop being released for the Xbox 360 and the more I think about it the more I agree. And not just the 360, I think the same will happen with the Playstation 3.

Now before you all start foaming at the mouth abusing me hear me out.
I love my Xbox360 and I do not own and Xbox One so I am by no means anti-last-gen.
I started looking into statistics to do with when games stopped being released and how long this was after the next-gen successor took over and the results are startling but kind of obvious.

(These figures are all based on the U.S. market as Microsoft is a U.S. company.)

Nintendo Famicon/ Nintendo Entertainment System
Released: Oct 1985
Games stopped being released: Dec 1994
Lifespan: 9 Years 2 Months
Units sold worldwide: 61.9 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: 3 years 4 months

Super Famicon/Super Nintendo
Released: Aug 1991
Games stopped being released: Oct 1998
Lifespan: 7 Years 2 Months
Units sold worldwide: 49.1 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: 2 years 1 month

Nintendo 64
Released: Sept 96
Games stopped being released: Aug 2002
Lifespan: 5 Years 11 Months
Units sold worldwide: 32.9 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: N/A

Sony Playstation
Released: Sept 1995
Games stopped being released: Oct 2004
Lifespan: 9 Years 1 Month
Units sold worldwide: 102.4 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: 4 years

Sony Playstation 2
Released: Oct 2000
Games stopped being released: Sept 2013
Lifespan: 12 Years 11 Months
Units sold worldwide: 155 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: 6 Years 11 Months

Sony Playstation 3
Released: Nov 2006
Games stopped being released: (guess-tamated) Nov 2016
Lifespan if stopped in Nov 2016: 10 years
Units sold worldwide currently (as of time of writing May 2015): 83.8 Million
Time stopped (if Nov 2016) after its next gen successor arrived: 3 years
(Playstation 4 released: Nov 2013)

Released: Nov 2001
Games stopped being released: Aug 2008
Lifespan: 6 Years 9 Month
Units sold worldwide: 24 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: 2 years 9 Months

Xbox 360
Released: Nov 2005
Games stopped being released: (guess-tamated) Nov 2016
Lifespan if stopped in Nov 2016: 11 Years
Units sold worldwide currently (as of time of writing May 2015): 84 Million
Time stopped (if Nov 2016) after its next gen successor arrived: 3 Years
(Xbox One released: Nov 2013)

So to recap:
Famicon/Nes lasted 3 years after the Super Famicon/Super Nes came out.
Super Fam/Nes lasted 2 years after the Nintendo 64 came out.
Playstion 1 lasted 4 years after the Playstation 2 came out.
Playstation 2 lasted 6 years after the Playstation 3 came out.
Xbox lasted 2 years after the 360 came out.

So we have lifespans of 2, 3, 4 and 6 years after the successors arrived.
So on that basis alone you are looking at an average of 3-4 years.
So we are looking at Nov 2016 - Nov 2017.

Now all of these examples are all very successful consoles so to simply say that Microsoft would not stop the 360 so soon is a very naive way of thinking.

Lets take a moment to compare the 360 with the Playstation 2.
The PS2 was incredibly successful selling 155 million units to Xbox360's current 84 million, that's almost double the amount. The Playstation 2 released games for almost 13 years during its lifespan, that's 2 more than the 360's would be if it stopped in Nov 2016. I think 11 years is a fair estimation for the 360 as it has significantly less units sold. Also the PS3 was backwards compatible with the PS2 whereas the XboxOne is not compatible with the 360 as we know. You might argue that because of this Microsoft would continue to release games for the 360 for longer than 11 years, but I believe that if anything this issue would prevent them from supporting it for any longer than 11 years, because ultimately they should be focusing primarily on their current generation system the Xbox One, which brings me onto my next point.

Xbox One as of now has sold only 10 Million units and the Playstation 4 has sold 22.3 so its obvious that they need to do something to improve this and I think in an attempt to get people to make the jump they will stop supporting the Xbox 360.

Think about it as a 360 owner, If you found out that Alien Isolation, Call of Duty Advanced warfare, Titanfall and Fifa were all Xbox One exclusives we would have made the jump already. We already know for a fact that Halo 5, Star Wars Battlefront 3 and The Gears of War 1 remake will be Xbox One/current-gen exclusives, its only a matter of time before other franchises follow suit. Halo and Gears of War are arguably Microsoft's most successful franchises, and potentially Star Wars could also be as with the new films approaching the brand will explode again, although I appreciate that Star Wars will be a current generation multi-format title it has still got strong pulling power as a franchise that will bring gamers over to the current-gen.

Now lets look at Xboxlive arcade and the indie scene. Releases have recently slowed down to just a trickle and any games that do arrive that are quality like Resident Evil 1 remake, Resident Evil Revelations 2 and Life is Strange are all (you have guessed it) available for not only the playstation 3 but also for the Xbox One and the Playstation 4.
This does not bode well for the future but it is very telling.

The thing is if I am right and my estimation is correct, Microsoft will not tell us this now.
They would not say as of May 2015 "oh by the way by November 2016 we will no longer support the 360 in 18 months time" because if they did a lot of people would stop buying and playing 360 games now. They are more likely to announce it in the summer of 2016 a couple of months before it happens. That way they know that the Xbox One will then definitely be on everybody's 2016 Christmas list's along with Fifa 17, Call of Duty advanced whatever amount, Titanfall 2, Star Wars Battlefront 4 perhaps or even Tomb Raider 3, and who knows what else.

And I suspect if Microsoft announces the switch to current-gen only first then Sony will follow suite or vise versa.

It all makes sense from a strictly business point of view and frankly Microsoft would be fools to not make this decision to stop supporting the 360.

There is some hope though.
As we know in April 2010 the original Xbox live servers shut down for the Xbox, that's 20 months (less than 2 years) after games stopped being released for the console, so I could be wrong about Xbox Live shutting down for the 360 in November 2016 as it could potentially remain active until August 2018. But I highly doubt it will continue for that long as there just seems to be nothing to keep it afloat for that time other than games that will be released in the next 12 months or so, and even those would be an afterthought by that point.

The realization of all this is upsetting to me and I wanted to share my findings and thoughts in this blog, but I still feel hopeful of the future for Microsoft as a company, I just feel that time is literally running out for them.

So to conclude people, we should continue to get those online achievements and join sessions and most of all enjoy it all while it lasts, because in my opinion the mighty Xbox360 and the 360's glorious Xbox Live days are literally numbered.

Thanks for reading.

Blazing Noble
Posted by Blazing Noble on 06 May 15 at 20:05 | Last edited on 07 May 15 at 01:45
Ell Bearo Alot of evidence to back-up your claim..

(Slowly backs away with pitchfork in hand)

Posted by Ell Bearo on 06 May 15 at 23:55
Ell Bearo The only one critisism is that nothings set in stone, the Xbone is a good example for that. Microsoft wanted to go a certain direction and the gamers said no, when PS4s started out pre-ordering Xbones, Microsoft did a complete u-turn on thier original policies!

I just think that if theres enough people that still pay for Xbox live Gold through thier 360s, then Microsoft would have to think abit harder about switching a considerable source of income off!

Fascinating blog smile
Posted by Ell Bearo on 07 May 15 at 00:04
KEOLIVEatHOME Good read. I work in the retail sector of the games industry and I find that the ps3 is pretty much already dead as most people are just buying ps4 consoles and most people are uninformed about the limitations of the ps4(eg. It doesn't play ps3 games) and are just buying in thinking it is the best way to go. I know customers who bought a Ps4 purely for next gen racing games which by the way there are none (except project cars which is out today). That means they waited a year and a half for a game they wanted to play.

The simple fact is that when the new consoles were released, the market did not need new games consoles yet. However, the industry did. It has given the industry a chance to grow into new technology and will make new games bigger and better. It will be much longer before developers get a hold on all the things they can do and it has so far proven with all the bugs in last years games that everything I just still way too new.

The xbox 360 will outlive the ps3 as its foundations are stronger. Sony needed to release the ps4 for the sake of their business but Microsoft didn't 'need' to release to xbox one and could have waited to make the release a little bit more solid, that's pretty much the major reason why Sony walked all over Microsoft, they needed a strong release.

I play all major consoles including handhelds and try to remain unbiased and give a professional opinion based on retail and gaming experience.

Once again, nice job putting everything together.
Posted by KEOLIVEatHOME on 07 May 15 at 01:18
Blazing Noble Thanks for the comments. It all started when I heard from a friend that it will probably happen next year and the subject kind of took me over. I just wanted to get all out there for people to think about it. I think it will happen sooner rather than later but who really knows when for sure. In 18 months I guess I will find out if I was wrong or right and this blog will be the proof.
Posted by Blazing Noble on 07 May 15 at 01:41
darkmikasonfire I thought that MS stated they would support it for at least 5 years, maybe someone just told me they said that, idk anymore lol. I hope they don't cut support for it next year, Gears 3 is blowly and will take me forever to 100%
Posted by darkmikasonfire on 07 May 15 at 04:20
Fire Hawk D It won't turn off next year. Just isn't gonna happen. I don't have anything to back it up beyond a general feeling that enough gamers haven't quite moved on yet. Pulling the rug out from under the consumer base in only a year's time would not go over well. If or when it happens, I think we'll hear about it long in advance.
Posted by Fire Hawk D on 07 May 15 at 04:26
Blazing Noble Maybe they will do it sooner rather than later because not enough gamers have moved on yet and that's the problem. Time will tell. At the moment current gen has a lot of games and exclusives on the horizon. I can't think of one game that will be out soon that won't be on current gen also. The only 360 game I know I will be buying in the next year is Lego Jurassic World and that will be on every format and its hardly amazing looking is it. Other then that 360 owners just don't have anything to look forward to.
Posted by Blazing Noble on 07 May 15 at 04:59
Blazing Noble This is not a problem for me as I have a back log of games and I don't tend to buy games until 6 months+ after they are released as I am patient and not rich. I don't play Call of Duty and I don't play sports titles for the same reason being it's just the same games every year I consider that a waste of money.
Posted by Blazing Noble on 07 May 15 at 05:02
KEOLIVEatHOME I think that the lifespan of the xbox one and ps4 will actually be quite a bit longer than the x360 and ps3 that's why there is a lot of focus on peripherals like the oculus rift. They can pull off all the flashy stuff with the new consoles so they will move onto enhancing the experience.
Posted by KEOLIVEatHOME on 07 May 15 at 06:56
KEOLIVEatHOME Either that or it will be slightly shorter for the sake of upgrading the hardware for something that will last.
Posted by KEOLIVEatHOME on 07 May 15 at 07:04
GTAmissions1 I think they won't turn off the Xbox 360 servers next year or the year after if they are still making games for the Xbox 360 and how there is still plenty of demand.

Even though an example is Battlefield Hardline shipping 80 percent on the Xbox One/Playstation 4 and 20 percent on the Xbox 360/Playstation 3, there is still some demand.

I would say next year, they will probably stop bringing titles to the Xbox 360, then shut down the servers soon after, but at the same time, as long as the Xbox 360 system is still generating revenue, the servers will still be online.
Posted by GTAmissions1 on 08 May 15 at 14:52
Blazing Noble Here is an interesting video talking about current generation exclusives.
Posted by Blazing Noble on 11 May 15 at 06:01
Noble Royale 18 months came and went and arcade is still active. Ironically finally got an XboxOne in Nov 2016. Ive spent the last few weeks playing and loving halo5, starwars battlefront, destiny, gears of war 4 and inside and i love them all. So basically my 360 live is now dead to me. Although i also play left 4 dead 2 now and somtimes red dead but other then that im only on my X1 now. So in a way i was right after all.
Posted by Noble Royale on 03 Jan 17 at 15:01
Noble Royale By the way this is my x1 profile, had to get a new one for my 1, long story.
Posted by Noble Royale on 03 Jan 17 at 15:02