Xbox 360 will be no more by Nov 2016 - Here is why
I have a friend who has a lot of industry contacts. Apparently word is that next year Xbox Live will be shutting down and games will stop being released for the Xbox 360 and the more I think about it the more I agree. And not just the 360, I think the same will happen with the Playstation 3.
Now before you all start foaming at the mouth abusing me hear me out.
I love my Xbox360 and I do not own and Xbox One so I am by no means anti-last-gen.
I started looking into statistics to do with when games stopped being released and how long this was after the next-gen successor took over and the results are startling but kind of obvious.
(These figures are all based on the U.S. market as Microsoft is a U.S. company.)
Nintendo Famicon/ Nintendo Entertainment System
Released: Oct 1985
Games stopped being released: Dec 1994
Lifespan: 9 Years 2 Months
Units sold worldwide: 61.9 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: 3 years 4 months
Super Famicon/Super Nintendo
Released: Aug 1991
Games stopped being released: Oct 1998
Lifespan: 7 Years 2 Months
Units sold worldwide: 49.1 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: 2 years 1 month
Released: Sept 96
Games stopped being released: Aug 2002
Lifespan: 5 Years 11 Months
Units sold worldwide: 32.9 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: N/A
Released: Sept 1995
Games stopped being released: Oct 2004
Lifespan: 9 Years 1 Month
Units sold worldwide: 102.4 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: 4 years
Sony Playstation 2
Released: Oct 2000
Games stopped being released: Sept 2013
Lifespan: 12 Years 11 Months
Units sold worldwide: 155 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: 6 Years 11 Months
Sony Playstation 3
Released: Nov 2006
Games stopped being released: (guess-tamated) Nov 2016
Lifespan if stopped in Nov 2016: 10 years
Units sold worldwide currently (as of time of writing May 2015): 83.8 Million
Time stopped (if Nov 2016) after its next gen successor arrived: 3 years
(Playstation 4 released: Nov 2013)
Released: Nov 2001
Games stopped being released: Aug 2008
Lifespan: 6 Years 9 Month
Units sold worldwide: 24 Million
Time stopped after its next gen successor arrived: 2 years 9 Months
Released: Nov 2005
Games stopped being released: (guess-tamated) Nov 2016
Lifespan if stopped in Nov 2016: 11 Years
Units sold worldwide currently (as of time of writing May 2015): 84 Million
Time stopped (if Nov 2016) after its next gen successor arrived: 3 Years
(Xbox One released: Nov 2013)
So to recap:
Famicon/Nes lasted 3 years after the Super Famicon/Super Nes came out.
Super Fam/Nes lasted 2 years after the Nintendo 64 came out.
Playstion 1 lasted 4 years after the Playstation 2 came out.
Playstation 2 lasted 6 years after the Playstation 3 came out.
Xbox lasted 2 years after the 360 came out.
So we have lifespans of 2, 3, 4 and 6 years after the successors arrived.
So on that basis alone you are looking at an average of 3-4 years.
So we are looking at Nov 2016 - Nov 2017.
Now all of these examples are all very successful consoles so to simply say that Microsoft would not stop the 360 so soon is a very naive way of thinking.
Lets take a moment to compare the 360 with the Playstation 2.
The PS2 was incredibly successful selling 155 million units to Xbox360's current 84 million, that's almost double the amount. The Playstation 2 released games for almost 13 years during its lifespan, that's 2 more than the 360's would be if it stopped in Nov 2016. I think 11 years is a fair estimation for the 360 as it has significantly less units sold. Also the PS3 was backwards compatible with the PS2 whereas the XboxOne is not compatible with the 360 as we know. You might argue that because of this Microsoft would continue to release games for the 360 for longer than 11 years, but I believe that if anything this issue would prevent them from supporting it for any longer than 11 years, because ultimately they should be focusing primarily on their current generation system the Xbox One, which brings me onto my next point.
Xbox One as of now has sold only 10 Million units and the Playstation 4 has sold 22.3 so its obvious that they need to do something to improve this and I think in an attempt to get people to make the jump they will stop supporting the Xbox 360.
Think about it as a 360 owner, If you found out that Alien Isolation, Call of Duty Advanced warfare, Titanfall and Fifa were all Xbox One exclusives we would have made the jump already. We already know for a fact that Halo 5, Star Wars Battlefront 3 and The Gears of War 1 remake will be Xbox One/current-gen exclusives, its only a matter of time before other franchises follow suit. Halo and Gears of War are arguably Microsoft's most successful franchises, and potentially Star Wars could also be as with the new films approaching the brand will explode again, although I appreciate that Star Wars will be a current generation multi-format title it has still got strong pulling power as a franchise that will bring gamers over to the current-gen.
Now lets look at Xboxlive arcade and the indie scene. Releases have recently slowed down to just a trickle and any games that do arrive that are quality like Resident Evil 1 remake, Resident Evil Revelations 2 and Life is Strange are all (you have guessed it) available for not only the playstation 3 but also for the Xbox One and the Playstation 4.
This does not bode well for the future but it is very telling.
The thing is if I am right and my estimation is correct, Microsoft will not tell us this now.
They would not say as of May 2015 "oh by the way by November 2016 we will no longer support the 360 in 18 months time" because if they did a lot of people would stop buying and playing 360 games now. They are more likely to announce it in the summer of 2016 a couple of months before it happens. That way they know that the Xbox One will then definitely be on everybody's 2016 Christmas list's along with Fifa 17, Call of Duty advanced whatever amount, Titanfall 2, Star Wars Battlefront 4 perhaps or even Tomb Raider 3, and who knows what else.
And I suspect if Microsoft announces the switch to current-gen only first then Sony will follow suite or vise versa.
It all makes sense from a strictly business point of view and frankly Microsoft would be fools to not make this decision to stop supporting the 360.
There is some hope though.
As we know in April 2010 the original Xbox live servers shut down for the Xbox, that's 20 months (less than 2 years) after games stopped being released for the console, so I could be wrong about Xbox Live shutting down for the 360 in November 2016 as it could potentially remain active until August 2018. But I highly doubt it will continue for that long as there just seems to be nothing to keep it afloat for that time other than games that will be released in the next 12 months or so, and even those would be an afterthought by that point.
The realization of all this is upsetting to me and I wanted to share my findings and thoughts in this blog, but I still feel hopeful of the future for Microsoft as a company, I just feel that time is literally running out for them.
So to conclude people, we should continue to get those online achievements and join sessions and most of all enjoy it all while it lasts, because in my opinion the mighty Xbox360 and the 360's glorious Xbox Live days are literally numbered.
Thanks for reading.
Posted by Blazing Noble
on 06 May 15 at 20:05
| Last edited on 07 May 15 at 01:45