Forget crowns, Monster Hunter Rise's lottery is the real test of luck and patience

By Luke Albigés,

Monster Hunter Rise's returning crown achievements are infamous for being heavily luck-based, but one new achievement could be even worse, depending on how the RNG gods decide to treat you...

We've already offered as much help as we can with tracking down giant and tiny monsters in our Monster Hunter Rise crowns guide, but that's not the only big roadblock between you and the completion. If you've been playing Monster Hunter Rise, you'll no doubt be familiar with the merchant Kagero, peddling his wares in the Steelworks and occasionally running sales to help you stock up on potions and bombs on the cheap. During a sale, though, Kagero also runs a lottery, and if you're going after the completion, you'll be seeing a lot of this guy and his definitely-not-rigged little game thanks to one particularly nasty new achievement that will help make Rise one of the hardest and longest Game Pass games.

Monster Hunter Rise's true final boss: Kagero the merchant

monster hunter rise lottery trinkets

The Sturdy Padlock achievement in Monster Hunter Rise asks you to collect every home decoration in the game, and it's a three-parter:

Cumulative: There are 50 wall scrolls you need to unlock and buy — one you have in your home from the start, four more unlock with story progress, but the other 45 will require a bit more work. Each depicts one of the monsters in the game, and unlocks after hunting that creature ten times after which you can buy it for a few thousand Kamura Points in the Special Goods menu at the Argosy. Since you have to hunt 1,000 large monsters for the Dreadnought Destroyer Plaque achievement, you should be able to get this part done while working towards that so long as you mix up your targets... it'll just take a while.

Collectables: There are a total of 60 Old Messages hidden across the five hunting zones in Monster Hunter Rise, ten specific to each area and a further ten covering the Rampage which are scattered across all five main maps. Your reward for rounding these up are a dozen carvings you need to acquire for Sturdy Padlock — one each for collecting five and ten of the zone-specific messages per area, then a final pair for getting all of the Rampage ones. You've probably stumbled across at least a few of these already, but having mopped them all up this week, I can tell you that you're not finding all 60 without a guide. Some are downright obtuse, hidden in tiny caves with barely-visible entrances, plonked at the end of parkour gauntlets along what feel like unintended routes as the mechanics can really play up, tangled among overhead vines, or hidden behind breakable objects you need to use bombs on, which I'm pretty sure is the only time this mechanic appears in the game. Enjoy the scavenger hunt until you don't, at which point don't feel bad about turning to a guide to find the missing ones.

monster hunter rise lottery trinkets

Luck: Finally, we get to the worst part. The last 12 decorations required for Sturdy Padlock are all possible prizes from Kagero's lottery, so let's break down why that's a bad thing. First, the lottery has around a 20-30% chance of happening when you return from a hunt, so you'll only be seeing it on average after one in every 3-5 quests. Then, the grand prize has a minuscule chance to be one of these 12 trinkets. Finally, you pay your money (or use a ticket) and see what you get. No result will get you some basic items, Bingo! might get you a few useful bits like traps, while you need to hit the Jackpot! result — when one of the rare trinkets is in the first prize slot — to claim it. Three layers of luck stacked high upon one another is a daunting prospect, and while there's a mercy system in place, it's unclear how it works. Reports are conflicting but the common consensus seems to be that you get a trinket you don't own as a bonus prize every 100 Jackpot results, resetting should you win a trinket at any point. And no, you can't save-scum it... prizes and results are set when the sale begins.

For a little added context, in well over 100 hours, I only hit my second trinket yesterday, and looking at the pages of complaints on Reddit and other forums, I feel pretty lucky compared to some of the horror stories I've seen from players hundreds of hours deep without a trinket to show for it. At least with crowns, you can manipulate the system to a degree by only facing monsters you need them from, plus a decent amount are guaranteed from event quests. But with the lottery, it seems there's no way to influence the outcome and speed up the process of getting these final trinkets. Superstitious tales about using the Good Luck armour skill, petting and feeding your Cohoot, using Lottery Tickets (which themselves are oddly rare and still don't guarantee a good prize) and whatever else to improve your odds all appear to be bunkum, so this part of Sturdy Lock is going to require... well, sturdy luck.

Potential newcomers, please note that the purpose of these articles isn't to scare you off — we've got a handy Monster Hunter Rise beginner's guide to help you get into the game, in fact — rather to help anyone chasing that 1,000G understand what they're up against. If you fancy a crack at it and/or aren't too worried about getting the full completion, Rise is a great game and perhaps the best entry point to the series yet, so get involved! May the lottery trinkets (and crowns, of course) be kind to you if you've got the Monster Hunter Rise completion in your sights... anyone had any lottery luck so far? Let us know!
Luke Albigés
Written by Luke Albigés
Luke runs the TA news team, contributing where he can primarily with reviews and other long-form features — crafts he has honed across two decades of print and online gaming media experience, having worked with the likes of gamesTM, Eurogamer, Play, Retro Gamer, Edge, and many more. He loves all things Monster Hunter, enjoys a good D&D session, and has played way too much Destiny.