This guide is intended not as competition to the other guides but as a supplement to throw hard numbers at the issue. The below numbers represent the percent chance you have of pulling any one particular card (in this case an in-form card) from each coin spent. This is an important distinction from a "per-pack opened" odds as packs cost variable amounts of coin. Also, the odds change each week depending on the number of each quality available in the TOTW. To determine which pack will provide the highest odds of pulling an IF card for your coins spent multiple the below numbers by the number of equivalent quality players available in the TOTW (including subs and reserves).

Bronze: 0.0000762% chance/coin spent

Silver: 0.0000158% chance/coin spent

Gold: 0.0000286% chance/coin spent

In case no one has mentioned it I recommend following http://www.ultimateteam.co.uk/ on twitter and setting a mobile alert for when they tweet. They announce all happy hours, which are the best way to get an IF player.

Math Proof:

Bronze:

105 pages. x50 each page.

5250 total players

1/5250

1.9047 x10^-4

.00019047

.019047% ~ chance of pulling any one particular player

.057141% ~ chance assuming three opportunities per pack

.00057141 chance/750 coins spent

.00000076188 chance/coin spent

.0000762% chance/coin spent

Silver:

101 pages x 50 each page.

5050 total players

1/5050

.00019802

.019802% ~ chance of pulling any one particular player

.059406% ~ chance assuming three opportunities per pack

.00059406 chance/3750 coins spent

.000000158416 chance/coin spent

.0000158% chance/coin spent

Gold:

28 pages x 50 each page.

1400 total players

1/1400

.00071429

.071429% ~ chance of pulling any one particular player

.214287% ~ chance assuming three opportunities per pack

.00214287 chance/7500 coins spent

.000000285716 chance/coin spent

.0000286% chance/coin spent

Assumptions:

3 opportunities (players) per pack opened

Contents of the packs cannot be predetermined nor controlled

Only rare packs are purchased.

Players in packs will only be of that packs quality.

TOTW players are all equally weighted.

Source:

FUT Head database. Tried to use UltimateDB, however you cannot view all of the players in a single quality. If someone can provide a data dump for all the FUT player cards this could be more accurate.

Commentary:

The only variable in this is the number of players of quality in the TOTW. I have opened at least 200 Silver packs, 100 Gold Packs, and 250-300 Bronze packs and have not found a single IF player to finish this achievement off. Lately I've been opening solely Silver packs, which you can often break even on if you auction everything off, however the results of these statistics clearly show that unless the majority of the TOTW is silver, these provide the worst odds. Gold will almost always provide the best odds, as that is what the greatest number of the TOTW players are and where the least competition is. Only two bronze players in the TOTW will actually outweigh the chance for any other quality, however you will need to open many, many packs, and making your money back will be a slow process. If you are a stats person and see a mistake in my math please help me out! Good luck.

HELP: For example this week (11/7/2012) has 11 Golds, 5 Silvers and 2 Bronze players. So the odds would be .0003146%, .000079% and .0001524% respectively with Gold have the greatest chance per coin spent.

Bronze: 0.0000762% chance/coin spent

Silver: 0.0000158% chance/coin spent

Gold: 0.0000286% chance/coin spent

In case no one has mentioned it I recommend following http://www.ultimateteam.co.uk/ on twitter and setting a mobile alert for when they tweet. They announce all happy hours, which are the best way to get an IF player.

Math Proof:

Bronze:

105 pages. x50 each page.

5250 total players

1/5250

1.9047 x10^-4

.00019047

.019047% ~ chance of pulling any one particular player

.057141% ~ chance assuming three opportunities per pack

.00057141 chance/750 coins spent

.00000076188 chance/coin spent

.0000762% chance/coin spent

Silver:

101 pages x 50 each page.

5050 total players

1/5050

.00019802

.019802% ~ chance of pulling any one particular player

.059406% ~ chance assuming three opportunities per pack

.00059406 chance/3750 coins spent

.000000158416 chance/coin spent

.0000158% chance/coin spent

Gold:

28 pages x 50 each page.

1400 total players

1/1400

.00071429

.071429% ~ chance of pulling any one particular player

.214287% ~ chance assuming three opportunities per pack

.00214287 chance/7500 coins spent

.000000285716 chance/coin spent

.0000286% chance/coin spent

Assumptions:

3 opportunities (players) per pack opened

Contents of the packs cannot be predetermined nor controlled

Only rare packs are purchased.

Players in packs will only be of that packs quality.

TOTW players are all equally weighted.

Source:

FUT Head database. Tried to use UltimateDB, however you cannot view all of the players in a single quality. If someone can provide a data dump for all the FUT player cards this could be more accurate.

Commentary:

The only variable in this is the number of players of quality in the TOTW. I have opened at least 200 Silver packs, 100 Gold Packs, and 250-300 Bronze packs and have not found a single IF player to finish this achievement off. Lately I've been opening solely Silver packs, which you can often break even on if you auction everything off, however the results of these statistics clearly show that unless the majority of the TOTW is silver, these provide the worst odds. Gold will almost always provide the best odds, as that is what the greatest number of the TOTW players are and where the least competition is. Only two bronze players in the TOTW will actually outweigh the chance for any other quality, however you will need to open many, many packs, and making your money back will be a slow process. If you are a stats person and see a mistake in my math please help me out! Good luck.

HELP: For example this week (11/7/2012) has 11 Golds, 5 Silvers and 2 Bronze players. So the odds would be .0003146%, .000079% and .0001524% respectively with Gold have the greatest chance per coin spent.

I'm waiting for after January on the off-chance the transfer trick works again, and spending all my coins on bronze packs. So far I've had nothing from hundreds of gold premium and bronze premium, and it's getting annoying.

If I spend 7.5k on a gold pack, I might only get 2k back if I just sell everything on, so the gold pack effectively costs 5k.

However, if I can break even on a silver pack, then it is effectively free, so it is likely to have a much higher chance/coin spent.

I might buy a few packs and see what the average amoint you can sell each pack for is, although it will be hugely variable.

These figures were only intended to show the odds within a single pack. And no matter what, you're odds are slim to none. On a per-pack basis the odds are about 2.5% for gold and 0.2% for silver and bronze assuming IN #as of 12/3/4.

I'm sticking with gold, as I've been done with the 85 mil achievements since September.

You might not find this helpful at all, but my gut told me otherwise and I finally got my IF player. Best of luck to everyone.

I will play PES14.