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In Form!

Find a team of the week player in a pack

In Form!0
3 guidesDiscontinued
Uranium DepositUranium Deposit414,145
08 Nov 2012 09 May 2013
17 3 21
This guide is intended not as competition to the other guides but as a supplement to throw hard numbers at the issue. The below numbers represent the percent chance you have of pulling any one particular card (in this case an in-form card) from each coin spent. This is an important distinction from a "per-pack opened" odds as packs cost variable amounts of coin. Also, the odds change each week depending on the number of each quality available in the TOTW. To determine which pack will provide the highest odds of pulling an IF card for your coins spent multiple the below numbers by the number of equivalent quality players available in the TOTW (including subs and reserves).

Bronze: 0.0000762% chance/coin spent
Silver: 0.0000158% chance/coin spent
Gold: 0.0000286% chance/coin spent

In case no one has mentioned it I recommend following http://www.ultimateteam.co.uk/ on twitter and setting a mobile alert for when they tweet. They announce all happy hours, which are the best way to get an IF player.

Math Proof:
Bronze:
105 pages. x50 each page.
5250 total players
1/5250
1.9047 x10^-4
.00019047
.019047% ~ chance of pulling any one particular player
.057141% ~ chance assuming three opportunities per pack
.00057141 chance/750 coins spent
.00000076188 chance/coin spent
.0000762% chance/coin spent


Silver:
101 pages x 50 each page.
5050 total players
1/5050
.00019802
.019802% ~ chance of pulling any one particular player
.059406% ~ chance assuming three opportunities per pack
.00059406 chance/3750 coins spent
.000000158416 chance/coin spent
.0000158% chance/coin spent


Gold:
28 pages x 50 each page.
1400 total players
1/1400
.00071429
.071429% ~ chance of pulling any one particular player
.214287% ~ chance assuming three opportunities per pack
.00214287 chance/7500 coins spent
.000000285716 chance/coin spent
.0000286% chance/coin spent


Assumptions:
3 opportunities (players) per pack opened
Contents of the packs cannot be predetermined nor controlled
Only rare packs are purchased.
Players in packs will only be of that packs quality.
TOTW players are all equally weighted.

Source:
FUT Head database. Tried to use UltimateDB, however you cannot view all of the players in a single quality. If someone can provide a data dump for all the FUT player cards this could be more accurate.

Commentary:
The only variable in this is the number of players of quality in the TOTW. I have opened at least 200 Silver packs, 100 Gold Packs, and 250-300 Bronze packs and have not found a single IF player to finish this achievement off. Lately I've been opening solely Silver packs, which you can often break even on if you auction everything off, however the results of these statistics clearly show that unless the majority of the TOTW is silver, these provide the worst odds. Gold will almost always provide the best odds, as that is what the greatest number of the TOTW players are and where the least competition is. Only two bronze players in the TOTW will actually outweigh the chance for any other quality, however you will need to open many, many packs, and making your money back will be a slow process. If you are a stats person and see a mistake in my math please help me out! Good luck.

HELP: For example this week (11/7/2012) has 11 Golds, 5 Silvers and 2 Bronze players. So the odds would be .0003146%, .000079% and .0001524% respectively with Gold have the greatest chance per coin spent.
HurballBrilliant guide, thanks for taking the time to run the numbers rather than random guesswork.

I'm waiting for after January on the off-chance the transfer trick works again, and spending all my coins on bronze packs. So far I've had nothing from hundreds of gold premium and bronze premium, and it's getting annoying.
Posted by Hurball on 14 Nov 12 at 11:52
Tricky898Thanks, I appreciate this! The only thing is is that this assumes that the players that you gain (that aren't IF) can't be sold on.

If I spend 7.5k on a gold pack, I might only get 2k back if I just sell everything on, so the gold pack effectively costs 5k.

However, if I can break even on a silver pack, then it is effectively free, so it is likely to have a much higher chance/coin spent.

I might buy a few packs and see what the average amoint you can sell each pack for is, although it will be hugely variable.
Posted by Tricky898 on 21 Nov 12 at 14:28
Uranium DepositIn my experience, the average bronze pack turns a profit, silvers break even, and golds are a huge loss. In that case bronze would be the best case scenario, but its still going to take many more packs to get there.

These figures were only intended to show the odds within a single pack. And no matter what, you're odds are slim to none. On a per-pack basis the odds are about 2.5% for gold and 0.2% for silver and bronze assuming IN #as of 12/3/4.
I'm sticking with gold, as I've been done with the 85 mil achievements since September.
Posted by Uranium Deposit on 21 Nov 12 at 15:39
pezza888Hmm intresting, I think another affecting factor would be that in a gold pack you have a chance of getting a really expensive player like messi or someone, and in a silver pack you have a chance of getting someone worth a lot like sterling. However, there are not these sought after players in a bronze pack, so you are unlikely to make money back off a rare player. Just a thought
Posted by pezza888 on 08 Dec 12 at 16:41
Uranium DepositThat may be true, but in my experience gold packs are a losing venture when you average the results out, while bronze packs always make money and silver is closer to breaking even. However, this solution doesn't make any claims as such, only to the odds of finding any one card per coin spent.
Posted by Uranium Deposit on 08 Dec 12 at 19:21
Itzz Sh0wt1m3good guide, but didn't you forget that every week way more golden players are inform than bronze players. The amount of bronze silver and golden players Inform differs every week but at least 11 of them are gold.
Posted by Itzz Sh0wt1m3 on 07 Jan 13 at 21:45
Itzz Sh0wt1m3Oh, just saw the last bit of the guide, my bad.
Posted by Itzz Sh0wt1m3 on 07 Jan 13 at 21:47
Uranium DepositYes, the percentages are on a per card available basis. Multiply them by the number available. Just as an FYI I finally got mine (a Gold) on Christmas Eve in one of the mega packs. Quickly followed by another one just a day or two later.
Posted by Uranium Deposit on 07 Jan 13 at 22:41
Uranium DepositAnd I don't know if they are going to do transfers the same way this year, if they do (and if transfers are added and not replaced) this guide will be worthless.
Posted by Uranium Deposit on 07 Jan 13 at 22:41
Ginn0rzThis is an excellent guide, thank you. I thought I would share an observation, which is completely unscientific and based on a "gut feeling". There were occasions when I was purchasing gold packs, sometimes even the limited edition gold packs, and I was being rewarded with absolutely awful cards. I spent 25,000 coins on a Chinese New Year pack and the highest value card I got was a rare 79, which was completely galling. If you feel like you are being given crap, I suggest you stop buying and save your coins for later. On the day I finally got an IF player (Michu), in the preceding gold packs I was consistently getting high value rare cards (Cech, Sanchez) and it *felt* like the game was being more generous.

You might not find this helpful at all, but my gut told me otherwise and I finally got my IF player. Best of luck to everyone.
Posted by Ginn0rz on 20 Feb 13 at 13:15
Ginn0rzI appreciate the implication from this is that there is a deliberate bias applied by EA, and the holistic statistical model is undermined. Given that they are flagrantly profiteering from this exercise it wouldn't surprise me if the dice are weighted.
Posted by Ginn0rz on 20 Feb 13 at 13:19
Uranium DepositNo doubt. I agree. The fact that it took me three months of everyday play to get this achievement speaks volumes.
Posted by Uranium Deposit on 20 Feb 13 at 17:05
gypsymuffinI luckily got this achievement no problem in FIFA 12 & 13. But I hate luck based achieveemnts. I really hope they steer well clear of putting one in FIFA 14.
Posted by gypsymuffin on 21 Feb 13 at 13:19
Ginn0rzThey won't, it's too lucrative. I will not be buying another FIFA game as long as this achievement remains.
Posted by Ginn0rz on 05 Mar 13 at 10:47
MABaggioI will not buy another fifa too, if this achievments still exists.
I will play PES14.
Posted by MABaggio on 30 Mar 13 at 16:09
RheinadlerThis is the most efficient solution I have ever seen. There have been plenty of bullshit solutions on this achievement in FIFA 12. I am not as good at math as you, but I also figured that gold is usually still the best bet seeing as usually about 3/4 of the TOTW players are golden. Thanks for the bronze math, tho. I figured I would only try bronze if there were at least 3 bronze players on, but you clarified that the odds are better if there's only 2 as well. Big fat thumbs-up, dude :-D
Posted by Rheinadler on 06 May 13 at 12:40
Uranium DepositThanks a lot there flosta32. Gold packs are definitely my recommendation, considering the much smaller player pool. Statistically Bronze is the way to go, however you would need the patience of a saint. You could only open a few bronze packs at a time because it will take awhile to sell their results on the marketplace in order to make back the money spent.
Posted by Uranium Deposit on 06 May 13 at 15:16
xPut Name HerexThey've started their Team of the Season stuff. The entire 23-player roster is Gold, so I'm guessing the odds are (relatively) in your favor to get a Gold Premium Pack at the moment.
Posted by xPut Name Herex on 08 May 13 at 23:03
Uranium DepositIn case no one has mentioned it I recommend following http://www.ultimateteam.co.uk/ on twitter and setting a mobile alert for when they tweet. They announce all happy hours, which are the best way to get an IF player.
Posted by Uranium Deposit on 09 May 13 at 04:55
L4D II JoK3rUsing this method on and off for a while I managed to get my IF card by keeping my income at a steady rate and my costs low, for this I kept using the same low budget Portuguese league team with a full bench and reserves only costing me around 30k in total they lasted me over 100 matches of which I was able to keep earning money and selling all the consumables and other cards in order to fund my next pack. Depending on the time I was able to on several occasions open 2 or 3 premium gold packs then place any cards I don't need back on the auction house for 1 hour and then return later, this allowed me to buy about 15 packs in a day by recycling the cards I didn't need, also remember to use the online app so that you can post items up whilst you're on other games. I did it whilst boosting others and just set an alarm on my PC to check every hour or so. It's still heavily luck based but using the tips provided by myself and others you can give yourself a bigger chance with minimal effort.
Posted by L4D II JoK3r on 01 Jun 13 at 00:56
Team BretherThere is 11 silver, 7 bronze, and 0 gold players this week. Get those bronze premium packs bought!
Posted by Team Brether on 20 Jun 13 at 09:58